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Suddenly, everyone wants drone interceptors like Ukraine, but the supply isn't there

Business Insider
Sinéad Baker

Ukraine's success with interceptor drones, as well as the new drone threat from Iran, has resulted in a lot of new interest in these defensive systems. Serhii Korovainyi/REUTERS Iran's Shahed attacks have fueled demand for interceptor drones, like those used by Ukraine. Some manufacturers say soaring demand has outstripped available production capacity. The COO of the company DroneShield said they're seeing "a shift in urgency." Interest in interceptor drones like those used by Ukraine to stop Russian attacks has soared as Iran retaliated against the US and its allies in the Middle East. The surging demand has outstripped the available production of a relatively newfound weapon, its manufacturers said. A year ago, Latvian drone and counter-drone maker Origin Robotics was trying to convince allies that they needed these cheaper systems to defeat smaller drones, CEO Agris Kipurs told Business Insider. Based on what was happening in Ukraine, where its products are used, "It was us trying to suggest that an interceptor drone is a layer in air defense that is necessary and critical" for allies, Kipurs said. "It was us doing the convincing," he said. "And I don't think that too many believed." That has changed. Iran has launched waves of Shahed drones and missiles at targets across the Middle East, forcing the US to confront the kind of drone threat that Ukraine has faced. And they know that Ukraine, and many companies operating there, now have years of experience and increasingly sophisticated defenses, of which intercept drones are one element; air defenders can remotely pilot them into incoming threats at a fraction of the cost of missiles. "At this point, I think that most countries have come to the realization that it's a critical capability that needs to exist," Kipurs said. Manufacturers need the purchase orders and funding to ramp up their production, which likely requires more space, workers, and parts for assembly. "Every email says the same. How many interceptors can you ship us in a week or two? Well, none. The answer is none." Kipurs said those delays were always going to happen unless countries were better primed. Ukraine has shown that interceptor drones can be a low-cost way to stop enemy drones. Genya SAVILOV / AFP via Getty Images "That's what is always going to happen unless you are prepared, unless you have those interceptors in advance in stock, because the production supply chain doesn't work like that. There are lead times for everything. And your supply chain, when you have to all of a sudden start producing at large volumes, is also stress tested." The problem, he said, is that when companies rapidly and massively scale production, they find issues like shortages of key components. "And you test processes only by really putting those processes to work. It's not a switch off and on that you can just turn. The scaling is among the hardest problems that growing companies face." Other counter-drone makers agree that there is now often more demand than supply. Stanislav Hryshyn, the co-founder of General Cherry, a Ukrainian company that makes interceptor drones, told Business Insider that the quick, sharp rise in interceptor demand means there's more supply than demand, and said, "Let's call it not a problem, but a challenge." Jiří Janoušek, a representative for the Czech firm TRL Drones, previously told BI that his company was seeing a surge in requests for its interceptors that are used in Ukraine, and wants to give priority to customers who were ready to move fast and know their operational requirements. "Supporting Ukraine remains a core priority that continues to utilize a portion of our capacity," he said. Interceptor drones are far less expensive than the impressive air defense missiles that allies have in their arsenals. Nina Liashonok / Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images Michael Powell, the chief operating officer of counter-drone company DroneShield, told BI that "What we're seeing right now isn't entirely new demand; it's a shift in urgency. The risks have been visible for some time, particularly coming out of Ukraine, but recent events have accelerated how quickly customers are moving from interest to procurement." The Australian company operates across Europe, has multimillion-dollar US military contracts, and has systems in use in Ukraine. "That kind of sudden acceleration can create pressure," he said, especially for companies that were not already scaled. He said his company was able to prepare with investments in scaling manufacturing and making its supply chain stronger, including starting production in Europe. DroneShield does not make interceptor drones, but it does make other lower-cost response systems, like detection and jamming. It also recently announced a new partnership with Origin Robotics. Interceptor drones are of interest to allies because they give them a sustainable way to fight the new drone threat. The US and other NATO allies have hugely capable air defense systems, but they were designed to destroy aircraft like bombers and fighter jets, as well as missiles with a large payload. They are at risk of being outproduced by cheap and slow attack drones of the kind Iran and Russia wield. One PAC-3 interceptor missile for the US-made Patriot air defense system costs around $3.7 million, while an Iranian Shahed drone costs around $50,000. Ukraine's interceptor drones typically cost around $6,000 or less, making it a much more appealing option against that target. And, they're much quicker to build and replenish arsenals. Origin Robotics says its Blaze drone, for example, can be set up in less than 10 minutes and is designed to use radar or visual tracking to fly into an inbound target and explode. "The problem is the number of threats that can be sent towards you," Kipurs said. "You cannot solve that problem unless you have at least an equal amount of interceptors that you are able to deploy in a very short period of time." The new threats have pushed a host of companies to start making interceptor drones, including ones in the US that have had no battlefield experience in Ukraine. Those companies could potentially quickly get to high levels of production, given that these are small and lower-cost items. Ukraine says it can make 2,000 interceptor drones a day to share with allies, but it needs the funding to ramp up production. Hryshyn said that he is worried that companies from other countries could take the interceptor drone lessons learned by Ukrainian companies and scale up and export more quickly than Ukraine's export rules allow, and Ukraine's industry could lose its battle-won edge. "This window of change is closing right now," he said. "Someone will take our place." Read the original article on Business Insider