arXiv:2605.08160v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Monitoring archaeological sites at scale is vital for protecting cultural heritage, yet pinpointing when disturbances occur remains difficult because visual cues are subtle and ground-truth data are sparse. We introduce WATCH, a framework for month-level change-event localization over PlanetScope satellite mosaics (2017-2024, 4.7 m/px) that supports three complementary scoring approaches: (i) Temporal Embedding Distance (TED), a training-free method that scores month-to-month deviations from a local temporal reference; (ii) Self-Supervised Change Detection (SSCD), an ensemble of reconstruction, forecasting, and latent-novelty signals; and (iii) a Weakly Supervised (WS) temporal localization model trained with sparse event-month labels. We benchmark WATCH on 1,943 archaeological sites in Afghanistan using embeddings from six foundation models (CLIP, GeoRSCLIP, SatMAE, Prithvi-EO-2.0, DINOv3, and Satlas-Pretrain) alongside a handcrafted spectral and texture baseline, and assess cross-regional generalization on sites in Syria, Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt. The unsupervised approaches (TED, SSCD) consistently outperform the weakly supervised alternative. TED with SatMAE achieves the highest exact-month recall (55% at m=0), while TED with GeoRSCLIP, CLIP, or Satlas-Pretrain reaches 92.5% within a three-month tolerance (m=3). Handcrafted features remain competitive for exact-month detection under weak supervision. Our directional margin analysis reveals systematic temporal biases: SSCD paired with GeoRSCLIP or Prithvi-EO-2.0 exhibits the strongest early-warning profile, detecting anomalies before the recorded event, while TED favors confirmation-oriented detection after a change has materialized. These results show that satellite imagery combined with foundation-model embeddings enables scalable, decision-relevant heritage monitoring. Code: https://github.com/microsoft/WATCH