Why the global supply chain still depends on China for advanced circuit boards Over the past year, I‘ve heard the same question from many overseas customers: “Will your production be affected by U.S.-China tensions? Should we move orders to Vietnam or Mexico?“ My answer has always been consistent: The concentration of PCB manufacturing in China is the result of three decades of market-driven choices. Leaving China is easy; finding a true replacement for China‘s PCB industry is nearly impossible. Output and market share continue to grow Domestic PCB capacity reached about 2.35 billion square meters in 2025, with capacity utilization at 92.8% – a global share of 45.6%. In short: China is not only the world‘s largest PCB producer; its share is still expanding. Unmatched supply chain depth In high‑end segments – multilayer boards, HDI, IC substrates, high‑frequency and high‑speed boards – China‘s share soared from over 90% in 2024 to more than 95% in 2025. In niche areas such as 2.5D/3D packaging substrates, 112Gbps server boards, and automotive‑grade HDI, Chinese companies have even achieved technological leadership. This end‑to‑end capability – from materials to finished boards – cannot be replicated by any single country within 5‑10 years. Sustained cost advantages A series of tariff hikes In addition, the de minimis exemption (for shipments under $800) has been eliminated, further raising the import cost for small PCB orders. The U.S. has also tightened controls on transshipment through third countries. In early 2025, a “transshipment identification tariff” was announced for Chinese‑origin electronics shipped via Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico – closing the loophole that many companies had used to bypass direct duties. Has the market logic really changed? Why? PCBs typically account for only 8‑12% of a finished product‘s BOM cost. Even a 50‑100% tariff has far less impact on total product cost than the risk of supply chain disruption. Moreover, PCBs from other regions cost 10‑20% more, and their capacity and supporting ecosystems are still immature – delivery speed and reliability often fall short. +1 is a contingency, not a replacement not to replace China, but to diversify risk and increase supply chain flexibility. Southeast Asian capacity is still nascent Meanwhile, 57% of surveyed companies said that moving capacity out of China is their biggest current challenge. In the short term, no country can fully replace China’s PCB production base. Chip export controls hit semiconductor packaging demand Middle East conflict disrupts key raw materials Under these multiple shocks, PCB prices surged up to 40% in April 2026 compared to March. Goldman Sachs forecasts that PCB demand will outpace supply for years to come, and the global PCB market is expected to grow 12.5% to $95.8 billion in 2026. China remains an irreplaceable base for high‑end PCBs. No other country can match its capacity, technology, or cost in the short to medium term. “China + 1” is not “ex-China.” Building backup capacity in Thailand or Vietnam adds options – it does not replace China. Tariff costs are already being partially passed on to U.S. buyers. China‘s indispensable role in high‑end PCBs gives it strong pricing power. Global geopolitical risks are raising costs across the entire PCB industry. Building long‑term relationships with trusted suppliers and planning backup options will be key to securing supply in the coming years. The U.S.-China rivalry has made the PCB supply chain more diversified and more complex. But it has not changed the fundamental fact that the world looks to China for PCBs. China‘s PCB industry today is characterised by continued concentration of capacity, accelerating high‑end migration, and steadily growing exports – tariffs are rising, but so is demand, and the latter is offsetting the former. Perhaps the eventual outcome is not “de‑China” but “even more dependent on China.” This article is contributed by AnyPCBA, a China‑based PCB manufacturer focused on small‑to‑medium volume production. No matter how the international situation evolves, we are committed to providing reliable PCB fabrication and assembly services for hardware teams worldwide – with stable quality, transparent pricing, and on‑time delivery. 🌐 www.anypcba.com